How To Make A Betting Model
Policy Governance®, an integrated board leadership paradigm created by Dr. John Carver, is a groundbreaking model of governance designed to empower boards of directors to fulfill their obligation of accountability for the organizations they govern. As a generic system, it is applicable to the governing body of any enterprise. The model enables the board to focus on the larger issues, to delegate with clarity, to control management's job without meddling, to rigorously evaluate the accomplishment of the organization; to truly lead its organization.
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The model enters Week 17 on an incredible 119-77 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. The model also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. After working in TV, Matt turned his focus towards numbers, specifically odds. He has been with us since 2016 and serves as SBD's Editor-in-Chief, credited with creating our futures trackers, SBD's score predictor, SBD Sharp, and his own model for calculating NFL SOS, among other products. Make money, save money, manage your money. Amazing tips and ideas for everyone plus weekly deals, competitions and freebies. MoneyMagpie - For a richer life. The Policy Governance® Model. Policy Governance®, an integrated board leadership paradigm created by Dr. John Carver, is a groundbreaking model of governance designed to empower boards of directors to fulfill their obligation of accountability for the organizations they govern.
In contrast to the approaches typically used by boards, Policy Governance separates issues of organizational purpose (ENDS) from all other organizational issues (MEANS), placing primary importance on those Ends. Policy Governance boards demand accomplishment of purpose, and only limit the staff's available means to those which do not violate the board's pre-stated standards of prudence and ethics.
In order to make a sound prediction on how a game will play out, it may not be a bad idea to learn how expectation works. While useful in Monte Carlo Simulat.
The board's own Means are defined in accordance with the roles of the board, its members, the chair and other officers, and any committees the board may need to help it accomplish its job. This includes the necessity to 'speak with one voice'. Dissent is expressed during the discussion preceding a vote. Once taken, the board's decisions may subsequently be changed, but are never to be undermined. The board's expectations for itself also set out self-imposed rules regarding the delegation of authority to the staff and the method by which board-stated criteria will be used for evaluation. Policy Governance boards delegate with care. There is no confusion about who is responsible to the board or for what board expectations they are responsible. Double delegation (for example, to a board committee as well as to the CEO) is eliminated. Furthermore, boards that decide to utilize a CEO function are able to hold this one position exclusively accountable.
Evaluation, with such carefully stated expectations, is nothing more than seeking an answer to the question, 'Have our expectations been met?' The board, having clarified its expectations, can assess performance in that light. This focused approach reduces the mountains of paperwork boards often feel obliged to review. Moreover, those boards which worry that they are only furnished the data management wants to give them find that, in stating their expectations and demanding a relevant and credible accounting of performance, they have effectively taken over control of their major information needs. Their staff no longer has to read their minds.
Policy Governance is a radical and effective change in the way boards conceive of and do their job. It allows greater accountability. Board leadership isn't just rhetoric. It's a reality.
For a comprehensive discussion of Policy Governance®, we suggest:
- Boards That Make A Difference: A New Design for Leadership in Nonprofit and Public Organizations, by John Carver,
- Reinventing Your Board: A Step by Step Guide to Implementing Policy Governance, by John and Miriam Carver,
- John Carver on Board Leadership: Selected Writings from the Creator of the World's Most Provocative and Systematic Governance Model, by John Carver, or
- Corporate Boards That Create Value: Governing Company Performance from the Boardroom, by John Carver with Caroline Oliver.
Learn more about these books on the publications page. All are available at josseybass.com.
A number of individual articles by John and/or Miriam Carver on corporate, NGO, and governmental governance can be found in John's bibliography or in Miriam's bibliography.
Access journal-length articles describing Policy Governance application:
- in equity corporations
– 'A Theory of Corporate Governance: Finding a New Balance for Boards and Their CEOs' by John Carver - in nonprofit (NGO) and governmental organizations
– 'Carver's Policy Governance® Model in Nonprofit Organizations' by John Carver and Miriam Carver
Quick stroy behind my basketball betting model. When I started betting, basketball became one of my favourite sports. Why? Because I was was placing bets in my local bookmaker and they simply didn’t move the lines back in late 90’s and at the start of 2000. This was the time, when I started my betting career and I had not idea, that this will be my full-time job 20 years later.
The difference between my lines and my local bookmakers lines
Back then I didn’t have any betting model and didn’t go deep with analysis like I do now. But I understand one thing – and this is the concept of +EV. I knew, that I should never ever bet on so-called winner, but instead of this I must to find the value. The value is always, when you get more for the same price or if you like, the value is when you get more than you would expect.
I was not basketball expert, but I was smarter than my local bookmaker back then. I was checking sharp online bookmakers lines and then I compared with my local bookmaker. I found, that betting on games, where the lines from my bookmaker and those from online sharp bookmakers (like Pinnacle), is very successful.
How it worked back then?
My local bookmaker didn’t create their own odds, they didn’t have any betting experts or math models to create their own lines. They simply opened the same lines on basketball games like Pinnacle and other big online bookmakers. Then they added little bi more juice and this was enough to eat small bettors.
However, there was also a small group of bettors, that understand this and I was among them. I knew, that they opened the same lines than Pinnacle on all basketball games and they opened that lines couple of days before the actual games even started.
But they missed one thing. They didn’t move the lines. And even if they moved them, they were to slow. And I knew it. So, I simply payed attention to those games, where my local bookmaker didn’t move the line and the difference between their lines and Pinnacle lines was big enough to bet on that game. And I can say you, that those differences were pretty big and I made a lot of money back then.
At some point they blocked my bets and all my combinations. The limits were not big, but I send my friends to bet at the same time the same combination and same bets.
Well….this is an example how it worked back then…
On Wednesday, Pinnacle opened the odds on Spanish basketball league games, that would be played on Saturday. Their opening lines on basketball game between Barcelona vs Real Madrid were:
BARCELONA -7 at 1.95 (-105)
REAL MADRID +7 at 1.95 (-105)
My local bookmaker copied those lines and add little bit more juice:
BARCELONA -7 at 1.89
REAL MADRID +7 at 1.89
At the first look, there was no value on this play and I also didn’t have betting model to estimate my own lines or odds to see if I have a value.
But then something happened….
Pinnacle moved the lines. Sometimes those line movements were quick, because of some very important information.
Their odds changed and would be immediately
BARCELONA -2 at 1.95 (-105)
REAL MADRID +2 at 1.95 (-105)
My local bookmaker was not that fast and didn’t move the line so quickly. Sometimes, they didn’t even move it. And the lines on my bookmaker stayed the same. They still offered:
BARCELONA -7 at 1.89
REAL MADRID +7 at 1.89
Of course, I knew, that playing Real Madrid is a vale play now, because my “betting advisor – sharp online bookmaker” – has Real at only -2. In other words, my online bookmaker thinks, that Real will lose this game for 2 points, no more. So, I have +5 points of room with Real +7 at my local bookie.
And this is how I beat a bookmaker back then, just by looking for the difference between my lines (my lines = online bookmakers lines) and my local bookmaker lines. In other words I was looking for a value, where my betting model was simply odds from online bookmakers.
But the things have changed….
Of course this couldn’t last forever. Local bookmakers were smarter and smarter, they started to move the lines very quickly and with the internet there is no bookmaker, that will make such mistakes on a daily basis.
So, I needed to find another way and this is how I started to bet baseball in next few years. But I learned one thing – you will beat a bookmaker only if you will find different lines and odds than they. There is no other way.
Most bettors still didn’t make a step forward…
I quickly realised, that betting on bookmakers will not be profitable anymore. Big bookmakers don’t make big mistakes anymore and small bookmakers don’t do a lot of them. I was an active member on different forums and I also saw, that following other people’s picks will not be profitable anymore, because you’ll never get the same lines and the odds.
With the internet whole sports betting world changed. The lines move all the time and the the best way is to learn how to bet. Sports betting is not like some other speculative businesses, where you trust your money to someone and they will make money for you. In sports betting there are many obstacles, like limiting players from bookmakers and every single bettor is a single story.
Then I decided, that I will start using my own statistics in sports betting…
Next few years I spend analysing the baseball and didn’t pay too much attention to basketball, because of little bit lower bet limits, because of quick line movements and I simply didn’t have enough data for European basketball leagues. Baseball gave me all that with huge data size.
The challenge….
Until 2017 I didn’t pay much attention to basketball betting, I also started with my Underdogchance site and then somebody asked me if I can create a betting model for soccer, for basketball, for tennis,….even for a cycling.
I said myself – why not
I still want to stick with baseball betting, which is my main sport to bet, but because I can help other bettors with their sports too, I decided that I will challenge myself to create betting models for other sports too.
STATISTIC and ANALYTICS is crucial and if you can mix this with other information that you have, you can beat a bookmaker. If you bet without statistics at all, if you rely on intuition, if you rely on public information, if you follow other people’s picks, where you always pay very big price with the odds, you don’t have a chance on the long run. And long run will happen at some point to all of us. Bettors that win in short time will keep betting for sure and they will face “long run” sooner or later. Unfortunately “long run” means also a bankruptcy for most bettors in the world. And one of the key reasons is that they don’t use statistics and analytics at all.
I understand the basic concept in sports betting, I know how to use statistics and I wanted to create something that will be simple and easy to understand for everyone. When I started betting I was always looking for betting models, but they didn’t existed and if they existed, nobody would share them with me. But this is something I wish existed back then.
How To Make An Mlb Betting Model
And this is how it started…
I have created a basketball betting model for my basketball friends and followers, so they can include statistic on a very simple way before they bet.
I didn’t use any complex programming languages, like python, but I wanted to create something in excel or google spreadsheet, which is free. After all those two tools I use for myself too.
I wanted to create a betting model, where you can calculate your own lines for basketball games. Something like information about first lines, that I get from my online bookmaker back then when I was beating my local bookmaker.
The idea was to compare my lines with bookmakers lines and then bet where there is bigger difference.
Because all my work is based on honesty and transparency, I started to share all my bets with my followers and also on some forums.
The success was great and I knew that I have created some tool, that every basketball bettor that don’t use any statistics must have.
With this method $100 bettor would make close to $6000 in 2017…
I understand that there is no perfect betting model, but I also understand, that bookmakers also don’t have perfect numbers, because sport is complex thing. I also understand, that they move the lines because of market.
But if I can pay attention on games only when the difference is enough big between my lines and their lines, I can definitely find some value. Numbers never lie, they are all about the facts.
And this is how I started testing my model for all kind of leagues, except NBA.
The record: 236 – 149 – 7 (61.30%)
Profit (1 unit/bet flat):
Download PDF with the results
This result analysis is made if you bet simple 1 unit flat and didn’t change the stake in this betting period.
The method was used from some of my followers on other sports as well. I didn’t test this model on other sports and the leagues, but I got feedback from others….
After I released my basketball bets, odds dropped quickly
I don’t sell picks, because I believe, that this is wrong focus by bettors/punters. Following other people’s picks never really worked and 99.9% of people are very disappointed with other people picks. No matter if I make a profit on the long run, most bettors will not reach the same yield and profit than me.
Don’t get me wrong, it is not your or my fault, but it is a general problem in sports betting world.
There are definitely bettors who make profit for themselves and there are very successful bettors, but to follow their advice with positive result is very hard in most cases. In dynamic sports betting world, where the odds are changing all the time, it is even harder.
After all, instead of focusing on other people’s picks, bettors can focus on their knowledge and make their own winning picks without paying thousands and thousands of dollars every season.
Because of that, I decided, that I will share this method with you.
The main idea is still that you get your own lines, which you can later combine with your information that you have about basketball leagues.
Blindly following this model….
I didn’t make extra research on those basketball leagues. I simply used my numbers, I projected my own lines and then I bet when the difference was 7 points for the spread and 10 points for the totals.
If you are a basketball bettor, you will have my private method and you can combine it with your analysis, which is amazing and can give you great results.
Would you like to…
Learn how I have created this model?
Learn how I used it?
To have this knowledge forever?
If the answer is YES, then keep reading, because I reveal my private betting model here. I don’t just share some sheet, where you put the numbers. NO.
You get the video (24:16 minutes), where I show you step by step how I have created this. It is very easy to understand, it is easy to follow and after one hour you will have your own betting model for basketball.
Exactly the same that I use for myself.
It is not just about the results…
How To Make A Sports Betting Model In Excel
It’s about including simple statistics into your analysis. Majority of bettors don’t use it at all. For majority of bettors using statistics is too complex. But I show you how you can use statistics on a very simple way.
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