O Reilly Auto Parts 500 Predictions
- O'reilly Auto Parts 500 Predictions
- O'reilly Auto Parts Online
- O'reilly Auto Parts 500 Picks
- O'reilly Auto Parts 500 Expert Picks
- O'reilly Auto Parts 500 Fantasy Picks
O'Reilly Auto Parts 253 (Daytona) NASCAR Preview and Fantasy Predictions By Tom Bowles, 2/20/21, 1:00 PM EST Daytona's road course the first of many changes on the 2021 NASCAR schedule. O'Reilly Auto Parts 253 (Daytona) NASCAR Preview and Fantasy Predictions By Tom Bowles, 2/20/21, 1:00 PM EST Daytona's road course the first of many changes on the 2021 NASCAR schedule. Top 2021 O'Reilly Auto Parts 253 predictions The model is high on Brad Keselowski, even though he's a 15-1 long shot in the latest NASCAR at Daytona odds 2021. He's a target for anyone looking for. Without further ado, here are our picks for the 2021 O'Reilly Autoparts 283 race.
Race: O’Reilly Auto Parts 500
Date: Sunday March 31, 2019
Track: Texas Motor Speedway
Time: 3pm ET
TV: FOX
What We Learned From Last Week
If that wasn’t a dominating performance by Brad Keselowski, then I don’t know what is. Keselowski drove to victory lane after leading a total of 446 of the 500 laps at Martinsville. He was certainly the class of the field, although he gave credit to Chase Elliott, who came in second, for having a very good car. Keselowski even mentioned at one point that he wasn’t sure if his car was as good as Elliott’s. It didn’t seem to matter, though, as Keselowski charged forward, studied Elliott as he led, and then regained the lead to capture the win. Overall, it was a better race than the other ones that had the “aero” package NASCAR newly implemented this year. Although Keselowski definitely led the most laps, he was being fiercely chased down by Elliott and even Kyle Busch in 3rd place.
O'reilly Auto Parts 500 Predictions
NBA Pick:Lakers Get Worse And Spreads Increase
Kyle Busch chalked up his poor performance to lap traffic, which, as I mentioned, is always a factor at Martinsville. Elliott was trying different lines in the late laps to try to catch up to Keselowski. He could match his times but rarely could beat him. Busch had a great car, but traffic really is a hindrance at this and most other short tracks. Track position can make or break a driver. This is also why pit road is so very important. Keselowski’s crew basically won him the race after getting him off pit road first on lap 380 for a restart. This was critical. He was able to keep Elliott off his bumper, and Busch had to battle traffic. Ryan Blaney finished 4th followed by Denny Hamlin for 5th position. Harvick, Bowyer, Truex Jr., Almirola, and Suarez rounded out your top 10 spots. Perhaps Bowyer’s finish was the most surprising as he suffered two pit road speeding penalties, sending him to the rear of the field twice. That should show you the caliber of his car and his skill to be able to drive from the rear of the field twice to end up with the top 10 finish. Pretty impressive.
Where Are We Headed This Weekend?
This weekend, the drivers are heading to Texas. We are heading to another race with this *fabulous* aero package. Quite frankly, I’m not expecting much. It seems like these races are doing exactly the opposite of what NASCAR intended for them to do. Regardless, Texas is known as a track with a lot of grooves, creating a lot of opportunity for passing. With the intention of this package, you’d *assume* that would be a good thing. The cars would be closer together on a bigger track with a lot of grooves and a lot of different strategies. I doubt that happens. I honestly think we’re going to end up with nearly 20 seconds separating the first place driver from the tenth place driver like we did before. I guess I should be hopeful. Texas is a 1.5-mile asphalt oval with 20 degree banking through all of the turns. The wide banking at 80 feet provides drivers an opportunity to race more towards the bottom of the track, but the high side still seems to be the preferred line. The momentum it carries creates more speed through the turns and the drivers are able to maintain without using much brake.
Potential Winners and Odds Heading To Texas
When it comes to picking a winner, I don’t think that we can look at traditional winners here or even intermediate track winners. We have to look at the intermediate track winners with the new aero package this year. That being said, Kyle Busch is the dominating factor. With 7-2 odds coming into this weekend, he’s very clearly the favorite. He really seems to have this package figured out. Being the points leader with the most wins thus far doesn’t hurt either. The interesting thing is that while he really seems to have this year’s package figured out, he also has won 3 of the last 5 spring races here at Texas. Not that history should play a large role, but with his experience here, it’s indicative he’s got both parts of the recipe worked out. He knows how to drive this track and he knows how to utilize the new aero package to its fullest extent. Let’s take a look at your potential winners heading into Texas this weekend (Odds from Bovada):
My Pick to Win: Kyle Busch (7-2)
Middle of the Road Pick: Ryan Blaney (12-1)
Dark Horse Prediction: Erik Jones (16-1)
Blaney has 3 top 6 finishes at this track. With his speed seemingly getting better and better each week, I think that he is definitely bargaining for a win sooner rather than later. It doesn’t hurt that Penske is a strong team so far this season either. Blaney is a good B list pick at 12-1 if you haven’t used him for too many starts this season so far. Texas is one of his better tracks. Between Logano and Keselowski, Blaney has a strong group of supporters on his side. Erik Jones finished 4th at Texas in both starts and will give you a pretty good payout with 16-1 odds if he manages to come away with a win. With his consistency this season, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him running up front as he continues to better his skills on these tracks with the new aero package. That consistency is paying off, but he definitely needs to maintain and work towards some race or stage wins, as he sits in the 14th spot in the points right now. Let’s take a look at your standings after Martinsville.
Here are your current top 16 after last week’s race:
1. Kyle Busch (7-2)
2. Denny Hamlin (20-1)
3. Kevin Harvick (9-2)
4. Joey Logano (8-1)
5. Brad Keselowski (7-1)
6. Aric Almirola (25-1)
7. Martin Truex Jr.(7-1)
8. Ryan Blaney (12-1)
9. Chase Elliott (11-1)
10. Kurt Busch (20-1)
11. Kyle Larson (11-1)
12. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (66-1)
13. Clint Bowyer (25-1)
14. Erik Jones (16-1)
15. Jimmie Johnson
16. Daniel Suarez (50-1)
If you take a quick peek at that rundown, you’ll notice that it seems Chevy is still having a hard time finding speed this year, much like last year. The top Chevrolet is Chase Elliott in 9th place. Toyotas and Fords are the class of the field again. Maybe someone will surprise us this weekend. Who knows? I still think that Kyle Busch is going to be tough to beat, though. With his history of wins and domination at Texas along with really jiving with this new aero package, he might be pretty unstoppable this weekend. Stay tuned for what we hope will be a great weekend of racing at Texas Motor Speedway!
Who else wants $60 of FREE member picks & predictions?
O'reilly Auto Parts Online
O'Reilly Auto Parts 253 Best Bets
The first of seven road course races on the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series schedule will drop the green flag Sunday at Daytona International Speedway’s 14-turn, 3.61-mile road course, a hybrid layout of the infield course and high banks of the 2.5-mile oval.
Yes, seven road races. What happened? How did we get to seven after receiving blowback from fans when adding three races to the schedule three years ago?
From 1988 to 2017, there were just two NASCAR road courses -- Sonoma Raceway, Watkins Glen International -- and then NASCAR added the Charlotte Roval to the playoffs in 2018 giving us three on the schedule through 2020.
But the pandemic allowed only two road races in 2020 with California (Sonoma) and New York (Watkins Glen) being shut down which put Daytona’s road course in play for the first time in NASCAR history as the schedule was released in staggered stages on the fly.
NASCAR Cup Betting Resources
O'Reilly Auto Parts 253 Picks
- Date: Sunday, February 21, 2021
- TV-Time: FOX, 3:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Daytona International Speedway
- Location: Daytona Beach, Florida
The original 2021 schedule had six road courses but with California Speedway being forced to cancel due to the state’s strict COVID-19 protocols, Daytona’s road course was there again on the fly and added. Seven road course events for the 36 points-paying dates.
The majority of Cup drivers aren’t very good on road courses -- making left and right turns -- giving the few that do excel a huge advantage in season points. I’m thinking the majority of fans and drivers would probably prefer more short tracks than having a fifth of the schedule loaded with road courses.
“I would probably vote for short tracks just because of the fact that I think that short-track racing is a lot of fun to watch,” said two-time road course winner Kevin Harvick. “The road courses will be great to mix it up, but when you look at the short tracks, everybody can see what’s going on from their seat and not wonder what happens the next time around. I think there’s a balance between adding more short tracks compared to road courses.”
Chase Elliott won last year's road race at Daytona in August and he's pegged as the top favorite on Sunday. (AP)
Handicapping NASCAR at Daytona Road Race
Sunday’s O’Reilly Auto Parts 253 will be the second race of 2021 and also the second NASCAR points race ever held on the road course, although the Rolex 24 Hours of Daytona has been racing on it since 1962. The thing I like most about this course is the speed of the cars using the 750 horsepower and short spoilers ripping around the high banks.
NASCAR also scheduled the non-points Busch Clash on the Daytona road course for the first time since the exhibition invitational began in 1979 so the 21 drivers that participated two weeks ago will have a huge edge coming in this week. They got 35 laps of quality time on the track and the top drivers in that race were no surprise. It was the same guys that have been dominating road races for the past five seasons. Denny Hamlin led a race-high 25 laps and finished sixth.
“Yeah, we had a fast car during the Clash, and I’m sure this weekend won’t be any different,” said Hamlin who the Las Vegas Westgate SuperBook set at 12/1 odds to win this week. ”We’ll take that data and learn from it, and it will certainly help us as we return to the same course. It’s going to be a tough race like all road courses are, but I’m confident in our team to put us in a position to win.”
Hamlin is one of those few drivers who excel on the road courses with seven top-fives in his last 12 of them, which includes a 2016 Watkins Glen win and runner-up on the Daytona course last season.
But he isn’t one of the top-two favorites at the Superbook this week.
NASCAR Cup Odds - Daytona Road Race
- Chase Elliott +250
- Martin Truex Jr. +600
- A.J. Allmendinger +800
- Kyle Busch +800
- Denny Hamlin +850
- Ryan Blaney +900
- Kevin Harvick +900
- (Odds Subject to Change)
It’s all about Chase Elliott at 5/2 and Martin Truex Jr. at 3/1 odds with everyone else at 12/1 or higher.
Without even seeing how they’ve done statistically, the odds immediately tell you something like no other NASCAR odds board has said. The odds say it’ll be a major surprise if one of those two doesn’t win and that’s the dilemma everyone betting this race has to deal with.
The duo has combined to win nine road courses in their career and they've won eight of the last nine road races dating back to 2017.
Elliott leads all active drivers with five road wins and has won the last four in a row, not counting the Busch Clash where he was runner-up after wrecking his best friend Ryan Blaney who was leading on the last turn of the last lap. It’s a great feeling betting Elliott when you know he’ll wreck his best friend for the trophy.
“Road courses have been good to us the past few trips, but that doesn’t mean it’s going to go good every time,’ Elliott says.
“There has not been one part of me that watched the schedule change, saw seven road courses and thought, ‘Yeah, we’ve got it now.’ That’s just not how I am. At the end of the day, you have to be good everywhere and I want to be good everywhere. We as a team want to get to the point where we can win on any given week: road course, circle track, intermediate, dirt…whatever it is, we want to be able to win at any time. The great teams and the great drivers are capable of doing that, and I think we are capable doing that. So that’s where my head’s at – trying to be good everywhere.”
And that’s our 2020 NASCAR Cup Champion. He says all the right things all the time, but not like a robot. He’s a calculated cool. But the oddsmakers certainly added some bump into his odds to win his second straight title with William Hill sportsbooks offering him at 5/1 odds.
It’s not quite Jimmie Johnson in-his-prime future odds, but it’s close. Hamlin and Harvick, who combined to win 16 races last season, are both 6/ to win the championship.
Blaney is the interesting look this week as the SuperBook is offering him at 16/1 odds to win Sunday. We just saw him almost win the Busch Clash two weeks ago with a great set-up. He has top-fives in four of the last six road course races, including a 2018 win on the Charlotte Roval hybrid where he scooped a scavenger win as Jimmie Johnson wrecked leader Truex on the last turn of the last lap.
O'reilly Auto Parts 500 Picks
Kyle Busch was the scavenger winner in the Busch Clash, coming from third to win, after the Elliott-Blaney dust-up. Busch is a four-time road course winner from what seems like way back, but there appears to be a new sense of urgency to run well with a new crew chief, the Clash win, and running well in the Daytona 500 until a late wreck. It’s all positive vibes and he’s 16/1 to get his first points-paying road win since 2015 at Sonoma.
William Byron is also offered at 16/1 odds this week. He’s a driver I think will be the next driver with no road course wins to grab one.
I don’t know when, but I’ll suggest it’ll be either Charlotte or Daytona because of the speed incorporated on the banking. In his last four road races he was sixth in the Busch Clash two weeks ago, sixth on the Roval last season, eighth at Daytona, and sixth at the Roval in 2019. He’s led 21 laps or more in three of his last six road starts.
“I don’t have a ton of experience on road courses, but I have gotten much more comfortable with them the last couple years and I think our most recent races show that,” Byron said. “We haven’t had a ton of track time at the Daytona road course but running the Clash last week helped us dial things in a bit better. Starting position is a big factor as well and, unfortunately, we won’t have the best starting spot based off the scoring metric. There are ways to make up positions on road courses, depending on the strategy you use. We’ll take the notes we have and do what we need to do to get a good finish.”
Byron will start 22nd, last week’s Daytona 500 Michael McDowell will start second, Elliott starts from the pole.
I think this is one of those weeks where regardless of your betting strategy or who you like to win, Elliott should be somewhere in that equation. Don’t be that guy that throws the favorite out this week.
O'reilly Auto Parts 500 Expert Picks
And the last thing, get a piece of Blaney as well.
O'Reilly Auto Parts 253 Contenders
O'Reilly Auto Parts 253
Top-5 Finish Prediction
- 1) #9 Chase Elliott (5/2)
- 2) #12 Ryan Blaney (16/1)
- 3) #19 Martin Truex Jr. (3/1)
- 4) #11 Denny Hamlin (12/1)
- 5) #18 Kyle Busch (16/1)
Odds Subject to Change - Per the SuperBook